NET — Q1 2026 Key Metrics
Reported May 7, 2026 (vs. LSEG estimates)
Daily Top US Stock Picks — June 12, 2026: NET & UBER
SpaceX IPO day volatility, surging PPI (+6.5% YoY), and Iran war drag set up two high-conviction dip entries: Cloudflare (NET, ~$227), where a misread 20% workforce cut conceals a 34% revenue beat, 600% internal AI usage surge, and accelerating FCF margins heading into July 30 earnings; and Uber (UBER, ~$70), trading 32% below its 52-week high while FCF compounded at 42% and the robotaxi platform thesis advances in London, Madrid, and Austin. Full fundamentals, technicals, risk factors, and 1–3 month operational strategy for both.
Issue #11 — June 12, 2026: NET & UBER
Global Tech & Growth Research | Daily Equity Report
Analyst: 12 years' experience, Top-Tier Investment Bank
Macro & market sentiment
The tape heads into Friday June 12 with a sharp reversal from Thursday's inflation-driven selloff. Reports that President Trump is signaling an Iran deal drove Dow futures up roughly 900 points overnight — a direct reversal of the geopolitical drag that sent the S&P 500 down 1.62% to 7,266.99 and the Nasdaq down 1.98% to 25,169.50 on June 11. 1
The inflation picture is the real overhang. May PPI printed +6.5% year-over-year — the fastest pace since late 2022 — while headline monthly PPI came in at +1.1% versus the 0.7% consensus estimate. PCE-sensitive components within PPI were broadly firm. Combined with May CPI at 4.2% YoY (released June 10), the Fed faces its most uncomfortable data combination since the post-COVID hiking cycle. The CME FedWatch Tool now puts rate-hike probability at roughly 70% for some point in 2026, with the October meeting carrying ~50% odds. 1
Key indicators as of June 11 close:
| Indicator | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,266.99 | −1.62% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 25,169.50 | −1.98% |
| VIX | 21.29 | −4.2% (easing) |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | 4.53% | −1 bp |
| WTI Crude | $90.59 | +0.64% |
One wildcard for Friday: the SpaceX IPO is pricing. Index providers including Nasdaq and FTSE Russell are evaluating accelerated inclusion criteria for mega-IPOs. Equity supply from a deal of this scale can generate index rebalancing flows that temporarily distort tech sector correlations — worth monitoring as intraday volatility through the close. 1
Against this backdrop, two names that held technical support through the June selloff and carry fundamental re-rating catalysts warrant attention for Friday's open: Cloudflare (NET) and Uber (UBER).
Pick 1: Cloudflare (NET) — the AI-edge infrastructure layer the market re-priced wrong
統計カードを読み込んでいます…
Investment thesis
Cloudflare delivered $639.8M in Q1 revenue (+34% YoY), beating the $621M consensus estimate. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.25 cleared the $0.23 bar. Full-year 2026 guidance of $2.805–$2.813B implies ~30% revenue growth at the midpoint and came in narrowly above $2.8B street estimates. 2
What the market priced wrong: the stock initially fell 24% after-hours on May 7 because CEO Matthew Prince simultaneously announced a 20% workforce reduction (~1,100 employees). The instinct to sell a headcount cut is understandable. But the cut's rationale matters more than its size. Prince tied the layoffs directly to Cloudflare's shift to an "agentic AI-first operating model," noting that AI tool usage across the company had increased 600% in the prior three months. That is not a distress signal — it is an operating leverage trigger. A company achieving 34% revenue growth while trimming 20% of its headcount is moving toward the FCF profile, not away from it. 2
The FCF trajectory confirms the thesis. TTM free cash flow margin stands at 13.77% on $2.33B in trailing twelve-month revenue — up from 11.7% in FY 2024 and negative in FY 2022. EBITDA margin has expanded from –5% in FY 2022 to +4.6% TTM. The operating loss as a percentage of revenue has narrowed from –20.6% in FY 2022 to –9.3% TTM. 3
The structural position is Cloudflare's clearest bull case. Its global network of 330+ data centers sits at the edge — between users and origin servers — making it the natural infrastructure layer for latency-sensitive AI agents. Workers AI, its serverless inference platform, is positioned directly in the path of enterprise AI workloads that need sub-100ms response times without the cost and cold-start penalty of cloud-region round-trips.
Technical setup
NET closed $227.44 on June 11 (+3.54%), with after-hours at $228.99. The 200-day simple moving average is approximately $207 — the stock is trading ~10% above it. The 50-day MA is estimated near the low-$210s range. RSI moved out of overbought territory on June 5 following the 6.99% single-day drop on June 10 (from $236 to $219 range), then recovered back above $227 on June 11 — a reclaim of near-term support. 4
チャートを読み込んでいます…
Analyst consensus
Seven firms updated targets around the Q1 print and subsequent recovery. Three most-recent ratings (as of June 10–11, 2026): 5
| Firm | Rating | Target | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | $250 | June 11 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | $260 | June 10 |
| Needham | Buy | $280 | June 10 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | $260 | June 10 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | $270 | Feb 2026 |
Consensus price target: ~$250, implying ~10% upside from the June 11 close. The $260–$280 targets from RBC, Mizuho, and Needham imply 14–23% upside. Q2 earnings are expected July 30, 2026 — the next fundamental catalyst.
Risk factors
- GAAP profitability: Net loss remains negative ($86.7M TTM). If macroeconomic conditions tighten further and enterprise IT budgets contract, the path to GAAP breakeven extends, which could pressure growth multiples given the rate environment.
- Valuation multiple sensitivity: At ~$228, NET trades at roughly 10x EV/NTM Revenue — a significant premium to the software sector median of ~6–7x. A 10Y yield that moves above 4.75% on renewed Fed hawkishness typically compresses high-growth software multiples by 15–25%.
- Workforce transition execution: The 20% cut enables operating leverage, but restructurings carry execution risk — customer success coverage gaps, delayed product releases, or cultural disruption. The market will watch Q2 churn metrics closely.
- AI-edge competition: AWS, Google Cloud, and Fastly are all investing in edge inference. Cloudflare's moat is its network density and developer ecosystem (Workers), but the competitive intensity is increasing.
Pick 2: Uber (UBER) — the autonomous vehicle platform hiding inside a ride-hail stock
統計カードを読み込んでいます…
Investment thesis
Uber's market narrative is stuck on a single question: will autonomous vehicles kill the ride-hail business model? The evidence from Q1 2026 and the subsequent newsflow suggests the right framing is different — AVs are expanding Uber's total addressable market rather than cannibalizing it, because Uber is positioning as the distribution platform that AV operators need.
Q1 Gross Bookings hit $53.7B (+25% YoY), beating the $52.8B analyst consensus. Non-GAAP Operating Income grew 42% YoY to $1.9B. Adj. EBITDA reached $2.5B on Gross Bookings margin of 3.5% (up 40 bps year-over-year). TTM FCF is $9.8B — a 18.25% FCF margin on $53.7B in TTM revenue. 6 7
The AV platform thesis has three active data points as of this week:
- London robotaxi sign-ups launched June 8 via Wayve partnership. Uber customers can register interest; Wayve's AI-powered autonomous vehicles will deploy "within months" pending UK regulatory approval. 8
- Nuro commitment: ~$500M. Uber has committed close to half a billion dollars to autonomous delivery startup Nuro — deepening its AV supply chain. 9
- Data collection at scale: Uber announced 500 proprietary data-collection vehicles will go on the road in 2026 — building the real-world driving dataset it can license or share with AV partners Avride, Waymo, and WeRide. 10
CEO Dara Khosrowshahi's June comment that Uber is recruiting fewer drivers in AV-active cities like Austin and Atlanta — not because the business is contracting, but because Waymo and other AV operators are supplying trips directly through the Uber network — is the clearest operational signal yet that the feared "AV displacement" is materializing as supply expansion, not replacement. 11
Meanwhile, the market has handed investors an unusual entry point. UBER closed June 11 at $69.55 — a 32% decline from its 52-week high of $101.99 — while the company's FCF compounded at 41.6% in FY 2025 and 105% in FY 2024. At 17.2x trailing P/E and $104.43 analyst consensus, the market is pricing in near-zero probability of AV upside.
Technical setup
At $69.55, UBER is testing the lower bound of its 52-week range ($67.26 was the intraday low as of June 11). This is the first sustained hold at this range-floor in over a year. After a 32% drawdown from the high and an extended digestion period, UBER has shown four consecutive days of low-volume consolidation — characteristic of institutional accumulation ahead of a potential catalyst. Analyst consensus at $104.43 represents 50% upside from current levels — the widest gap-to-consensus in the stock's recent history. 12
チャートを読み込んでいます…
Risk factors
- Robotaxi timeline slippage: London, Madrid, and other international robotaxi deployments depend on regulatory approval. AV timelines have a consistent track record of slipping. If meaningful AV gross bookings volume doesn't appear on the P&L by Q3–Q4 2026, the re-rating thesis loses a near-term catalyst.
- NYC driver lawsuit: Uber and Lyft filed suit against New York City on June 11 to block a driver retention law. If the law survives legal challenge, it sets a precedent for city-level driver regulations that could raise cost-per-trip in major US markets. 13
- India competitive exposure: Uber faces a genuine competitive threat from Rapido in India — a must-win market — where local pricing and two-wheeler economics differ materially from the Uber model. Market share loss in India would cap the TAM expansion story.
- Take-rate scrutiny: A Business Insider study using driver trip histories found Uber is now capturing the majority of ride fares in some US cities. If further take-rate expansion faces regulatory or driver supply constraints, EBITDA margin expansion could stall. 14
- AI spend cost control: Uber blew through its internal AI tool budget in four months and instituted monthly usage caps in June 2026. This suggests near-term technology expense pressure as the company scales agentic AI internally. 15
Operational strategy (1–3 month horizon)
NET — Cloudflare
Entry range: $220–$232. The stock has re-established support above its 50-day MA (~$210) and reclaimed $227 after the June 10 sell-off. Entry at or below $232 maintains a favorable risk/reward against the $250–$270 consensus range.
Target 1: $250 (consensus / Truist target) — approximately 10% upside from June 11 close. Achievable on continued enterprise AI workload momentum or a positive Q2 guidance update at the July 30 earnings call.
Target 2: $270–$280 (Wells Fargo / Needham range) — requires evidence that the AI-first restructuring is translating to accelerating FCF margin expansion (FCF margin >16% TTM by Q3).
Stop / reassessment: $210. A close below the 50-day MA on above-average volume, or deterioration in Q2 net new ARR metrics, would signal the post-restructuring thesis is not working.
Key catalysts: Q2 2026 earnings (expected ~July 30); any analyst day / product launch on Cloudflare Workers AI platform; macroeconomic developments on rate expectations (lower yield = multiple expansion for growth software).
UBER — Uber Technologies
Entry range: $67–$73. The stock is at the floor of its 52-week range, with $67.19 as the intraday low on June 11. Entry in this range represents a 35–55% gap to the $104.43 analyst consensus.
Target 1: $85 — approximately 22% upside. Achievable on two consecutive quarters of AV gross bookings appearing as a distinct revenue driver (or any analyst call calling it out), combined with continued EBITDA margin expansion.
Target 2: $100–$104 (consensus) — requires clear regulatory approval for London Wayve deployment with trip data, and demonstration that AV supply expansion is driving incremental gross bookings growth at Mobility segment margins exceeding 30%.
Stop / reassessment: $62. A weekly close below the $67 range-floor (more than 7% below the June 11 close) would indicate institutional selling into the AV optionality, requiring reassessment of the timeline thesis.
Key catalysts: London Wayve robotaxi launch date announcement; Q2 2026 earnings (expected early August); any regulatory resolution on NYC driver retention law; India market share update vs. Rapido.
Issue #11 in brief
| NET | UBER | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Cloud infrastructure / AI edge | Mobility / AV platform |
| Close (Jun 11) | $227.44 | $69.55 |
| 52-wk range | ~$167–$273 | $67.26–$101.99 |
| Analyst consensus | ~$250 | $104.43 |
| Implied upside | ~10% | ~50% |
| Q1 revenue growth | +34% YoY | +14% YoY (revenue) / +25% (bookings) |
| FCF margin (TTM) | 13.8% | 18.3% |
| Next earnings | ~July 30, 2026 | ~Early Aug 2026 |
| Entry range | $220–$232 | $67–$73 |
| Stop | $210 | $62 |
This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All prices as of June 11, 2026 close unless noted. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
参考ソース
- 1Schwab Market Update — June 11, 2026
- 2Cloudflare Q1 2026 earnings — CNBC
- 3Cloudflare financials — StockAnalysis
- 4Cloudflare technical analysis — StockInvest
- 5Cloudflare analyst ratings — Benzinga
- 6Uber Q1 2026 earnings — QZ
- 7Uber Q1 2026 prepared remarks
- 8Uber London robotaxi sign-ups — Reuters
- 9Uber-Nuro commitment — Reuters
- 10Uber data vehicles — TechCrunch
- 11Uber driver recruitment — Business Insider
- 12Uber stock overview — StockAnalysis
- 13Uber NYC lawsuit — Reuters
- 14Uber take-rate study — Business Insider
- 15Uber AI spending — TechCrunch
このコンテンツについて、さらに観点や背景を補足しましょう。